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Later, Pang et al.39 proposed a new Conditional Generative Adversarial Network (CGAN) method for the weather-related aircraft trajectory prediction problem. In disaster situations, UAVs and aircrafts will perform rescue missions jointly in limited airspace. However, there is a risk of collision—conflict detection and resolution (CD&R) issues. In addition, a state estimation method based on Kalman algorithm is proposed to realize aircraft trajectory planning.
- This article first visualizes the ADS-B raw data, and then performs preliminary manual screening to eliminate seriously damaged data, such as blank data, large-scale damaged data, etc.
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The number of hidden layer nodes is directly related to the complexity and output accuracy of the solution. Therefore, selecting networks with different numbers of nodes for prediction to find the optimal network structure. Baklacioglu et al.21 uses a genetic algorithm (GA) to derive a new aeronautical propulsion model (APM) from the flight manual data of a transport aircraft for accurate trajectory prediction. The Artificial Intelligence (AI) that underpins the Aviator Predictor app is designed to provide a reliable forecast of the plane’s drop point with 99% accuracy.
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- 19, it can be seen that after comprehensive comparison of 3D trajectories, it can be found that the final prediction effect of Bi-LSTM is the best.
- Since factors such as weather, aircraft characteristics and flight plans can also affect the trajectory of aircraft, some scholars have done study considering the above factors.
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- In disaster situations, UAVs and aircrafts will perform rescue missions jointly in limited airspace.
Figure 14 shows the comparison of relative errors in longitude prediction results. It can be seen that the error of Bi-LSTM represented by the solid red line is closer to 0. This can also prove that Bi-LSTM not only can obtain more accurate prediction results com-pared to ordinary neural networks, but also has more stable prediction performance. 14, it can be seen that the relative prediction errors of Adaboost, MLP, and SVR are also relatively large, which is consistent with the results shown in Fig. Afterwards, the first 70% of historical ADS-B data will be selected and preprocessed to train the Bi-LSTM in the trajectory prediction framework.
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Finally, compare the remaining 30% predicted trajectory with the actual trajectory. Firstly, the preset number of training iterations is 50, and the number of hidden layer neurons ranges from 10 to 110. Therefore, it is necessary to first conduct data screening to select relatively complete aircraft trajectory data for subsequent model training. This article first visualizes the ADS-B raw data, and then performs preliminary manual screening to eliminate seriously damaged data, such as blank data, large-scale damaged data, etc. The relatively complete trajectory screened out is shown in Fig. This study utilizes historical ADS-B data to predict aircraft trajectories in the event of ADS-B failure without explicit modeling of aircraft performance, procedures, and airspace.
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The Bi-LSTM neural network structure model is divided into two independent LSTMs. The input sequence is input into two LSTM neural networks in positive and reverse order for feature extraction, and the two output vectors are concatenated to form the final feature expression. The model design concept of Bi-LSTM is to enable the feature data obtained at time t to have both past and future information. However, in practical applications, some tasks need to be able to better process sequence information, that is, the input before and the input after are related. Typical tasks include language translation, automatic text generation, time series data prediction, and so on.
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Figure 18 shows the comparison of relative errors in altitude prediction results. The relative error of Adaboost at prediction points 60, 160, and 230 is very large, which also corresponds to the results in Fig. The relative error between MLP and SVR is also relatively large, especially after the prediction point 160. It can be seen that the error of the red solid line Bi-LSTM is closer to 0, except for the first 30 prediction points. This can also prove that Bi-LSTM not only can obtain more accurate prediction results compared to ordinary neural networks, but also has more stable prediction performance.
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The predicted results of Adaboost, MLP, and SVR differ greatly from the actual situation, and can only predict the approximate direction. However, in the event of on-board equipment failure and local area signal interference, the ADS-B signal will disappear or be interrupted, which will bring danger to aviation safety. Therefore, in the event of ADS-B failure, it is important to make short-term predictions of the trajectory of the aircraft, which can improve aviation safety in busy airspace. The Aviator prediction app elucidates the game prediction process but also begets a few complications. For instance, it improves gaming experience by providing quick predictions to help the player estimate the sums by playing Aviator. However, it cannot predict with 100% accuracy as the results are processed through an algorithm.
- The comparison of prediction results of 7 methods on latitude trajectories.
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- The model design concept of Bi-LSTM is to enable the feature data obtained at time t to have both past and future information.
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- In order to solve the aforementioned gradient vanishing problem, LSTM is proposed.
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- Zhang et al.35 constructs a space–time convolution neural network (STG-CNN) model to solve the collision problem during airport ground operations.
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- Rezaie et al.6 proposed a conditional Markov (CM) sequence considering the information of waypoints.
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